Forex Pair Correlation Matrix

How to read it

Each cell shows the correlation between two pairs' daily returns over the chosen window. +1.0 means the pairs move in lockstep. −1.0 means they move opposite each other. 0 means independent.

The biggest insight for retail traders is the same-side trap: long EUR/USD + long GBP/USD + long AUD/USD looks like three trades but is essentially three legs of one short-USD bet. They have correlations near +0.85 most of the time. A loss on one is usually a loss on all three. The matrix makes that obvious.

Practical uses

• Avoid double-exposure. If two pairs you want to trade have correlation above ~0.7, sizing them as independent positions is hidden over-leverage.
• Pair selection for diversification. A portfolio of pairs with mutually low (or negative) correlations is more resilient to single-currency shocks.
• Hedging. Strongly negative correlations (e.g. EUR/USD vs USD/CHF, often −0.85+) can hedge dollar exposure in either direction.
• Spot regime shifts. When historically uncorrelated pairs suddenly correlate, the market is being driven by a single macro factor (rates, risk-on/off). Worth knowing before sizing up.

Why daily and not intraday?

Daily ECB rates are free, simultaneously timestamped across all pairs, and immune to broker-specific spread variation — which makes them a clean source for correlation work. Intraday correlation drifts more (especially across session boundaries) and would need a paid tick feed to do honestly.

FAQ

Why these ten pairs and not all 28 majors?

These ten cover the majority of retail forex volume. A 28×28 matrix is technically possible but visually unreadable on a phone, and the bottom-end pairs add little new information once you have the seven USD majors and three popular crosses.

Are these correlations stable?

No. Correlation regimes shift with macro conditions. EUR/USD and GBP/USD typically run +0.7 to +0.9 but can briefly drop to +0.3 during Brexit-style UK-specific events. Use the window selector (14d / 30d / 60d / 90d) to see how stable a given pair-pair relationship is across horizons.

How is the calculation done?

For each pair, we compute the log return on each day from the previous day's ECB close. Then for every pair-pair we compute the Pearson correlation coefficient across the window. The math runs entirely in your browser; no server calls beyond the ECB rate fetch.

Pair this with our Currency Strength Meter to pick the cleanest side, and the Trade Plan Builder to size the position.